COVID-19


 
 
 
This paper analyzes the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on a small tourism dependent open economy. The lockdown affected both the demand side and the supply side of the economy, as production of goods and services dramatically dropped due to firms’ shutdowns, broken supply chains, or bankruptcies, and aggregate demand diminished due to lower consumer confidence and investment cutbacks, accompanied by a dramatic fall in international tourism demand, in particular due to travel restrictions. We look on these supply and demand changes through the lens of a macroeconomic model of a small open economy, comprising an industrial and a tourism sector. For this purpose, we modify Schubert’s (2013) model by introducing a multiple shock which reflects (i) reduced sectoral productivities due to, e.g., broken supply chains, (ii) a drop in employment due to firms’ lockdowns, and (iii) a sharp decline in international tourism demand. We find that the multiple shock leads to an immediate drop in GDP and a boost of the short-run unemployment rate, followed by a gradual transition back to steady state. The adverse effects on the tourism sector are the more severe the slower international tourism demand reverts to pre-crisis levels, but they do not strongly spill over to the industrial sector. Furthermore, even if international tourism demand recovers quickly, the effects on the industrial sector barely change. The length of the industrial sector’s recovery basically depends on the speed of restoring its sectoral productivity rather than on international tourism demand. The reason for this result can be found in the absorbing effect of the relative price of tourism services in terms of the industrial good. 
 
 
 



Introduction to the State of Hawai'i Weekly COVID-19 Cluster Report
A disease cluster refers to multiple cases of a disease occurring at one time, in one geographic location, or among people with the same or similar shared exposures. Public health officials investigate and study disease clusters because they can provide important information about how diseases are transmitted between individuals and among groups of people; information which can then be used to identify risk factors, inform official recommendations, design interventions, and implement policies to prevent, mitigate, and stop the spread of that disease in communities.
In Hawai'i, COVID-19 clusters associated with community events, social gatherings, workplaces, and other settings have helped public health officials understand the specific settings where disease transmission is most likely to occur. As our state looks to modify current restrictions on businesses and activities implemented in response to the global COVID-19 pandemic, the Hawai'i State Department of Health is prioritizing not only investigating and analyzing local COVID-19 clusters, but also sharing current

Key Updates: Clusters in Restaurants and Bars
• The majority of clusters in restaurants, bars, and other food service settings investigated in Hawai'i have involved suspected transmission among coworkers, as opposed to transmission between food establishment employees and patrons. For example, a cluster investigated earlier this month involved three employees at a small family-owned restaurant. The investigation revealed that employees were wearing masks while working, but masks were not always being worn properly. For example, employees in the kitchen area sometimes did not have their noses covered by the masks. Additionally, the layout of the restaurant's grill and stove workstations made it difficult to maintain physical distance at all times. Recommendations included maintaining proper masking at all times and reorienting workstations or adding in physical barriers between workstations if possible. No cases among restaurant patrons were identified in this investigation.
• One COVID-19 cluster identified among coffee shop employees in September highlighted unique challenges for workers in certain food service settings. Although employees did generally follow physical distancing recommendations, spacial constraints in the work area (in this case, a long narrow space behind a bar) led to brief but repeated close contact between employees, putting them at risk for transmission of COVID-19. An in-depth investigation and analysis of this cluster and similar past clusters led to a modification of recommendations. For food service establishments where work area layout may not allow for consistent physical distancing, Hawaii DOH now recommends quarantining the entire shift in a shared work area when an employee tests positive for COVID-19.
• Multiple clusters investigated on Oahu have involved suspected transmission from a patron ordering drinks to an employee taking the drink order from behind a bar. In one cluster currently under investigation, a patron was symptomatic when he ordered drinks from a bar area within a restaurant, and the employee that took his order later tested positive for COVID-19. This situation highlights heightened risks associated with bars and similar settings where people often lean in close and/or yell to make food and drink orders in order to be heard over loud background noise.

Weekly COVID-19 Cluster Report
November 27, 2020 cluster information and disseminating key lessons learned to date.
It is important to note that most COVID-19 cases cannot be linked to a specific setting or cluster. Therefore, the total number of cases identified as associated with COVID-19 clusters in Hawai'i will be significantly lower than the overall total number of cases of COVID-19 identified within the State of Hawai'i. The tables below summarize COVID-19 clusters that have been identified through statewide case investigation and contact tracing efforts and are actively under investigation within the State of Hawai'i during the specified reporting week. The same cluster may be included in multiple reports from week to week if a new case has been identified within 14 days of the date the report was finalized.

Definitions for Terms Used in this Report
Because this weekly report focuses on clusters associated with non-household exposures, the definition of a COVID-19 cluster employed within this report is as follows: Two (2) or more confirmed or probable cases of SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19) linked to a particular site or event within one incubation period (14 days) as long as those cases do not have outside exposure to each other (i.e. they are not household members or close contacts outside the selected location).
Note: Identifying cases as part of a cluster does not necessarily imply that transmission has occurred in the site or at the event associated with the cluster.
Additional definitions for terms used within this report are outlined below.

Case
Both confirmed and probable cases of SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19), including deaths.

Confirmed case
A case with confirmatory laboratory evidence.

Probable case
Refers to a case: • Meeting clinical criteria AND epidemiologic linkage with no confirmatory laboratory testing performed for SARS-CoV-2

OR
• Meeting presumptive laboratory evidence

OR
• Meeting vital records criteria with no confirmatory laboratory evidence for SARS-CoV-2.

Cases associated with the primary setting
Refers to cases linked to a COVID-19 cluster that were directly exposed to the primary site or event.

Linked cases outside the primary setting
Refers to cases linked to a COVID-19 cluster that were NOT directly exposed to the primary site or event (for example, cases among household contacts of any cases associated with the primary setting).